From dictatorship to negotiations: the hidden role of independent trade unions

Speaking of prerequisites for change, we often focus on individuals and tend to underestimate the role of institutions. Global experience shows that a most relevant role in a peaceful transformation can be played by trade unions – but the real ones, not their simulacra.

Authoritarian regimes tend to destroy or devalue systemic institutions and civil society organizations that collectively form a system of checks and balances. Aliaksandr Lukashenka is no exception to this rule. Belarus has long lost the genuine separation of powers and, following the 2020 protests, many civil society structures have been banned.

The authorities accorded particular attention to the purging of independent trade unions. And there is a reason behind this.

Modern researchers assess the role of trade unions in transition from autocracy to democracy as rather prominent. For instance, this is a conclusion in the publication “Preconditions for pacted transitions from authoritarian rule” authored by Gennadii Iakovlev, PhD, a staff member of the European University Institute (Fiesole, Italy).

The author is convinced that organizations like trade unions are sturdy enough to survive an autocratic regime and sufficiently relevant to be represented at the negotiations table. And that is particularly significant during a period when the society suddenly faces a dramatic change in the national agenda.

The research points out that the presence of trade unions as a negotiating party significantly boosts chances for democratization. Contrarily, the unions’ absence at the round table leads to a failed dialogue.

Iakovlev argues that the unions provide a form of monitoring the politicians’ compliance with the agreements they have endorsed and ensure democratization during the first years following the collapse of the old regime. This helps guarantee that the negotiating partners do not deviate from keeping their promises.

The research claims that the involvement of trade unions in the transition process has a direct and incredibly strong impact suggestive of a direct link between the strength of the working class and democratization. This impact is most probably due to the unions’ organizing potential.

In the author’s opinion, this serves as a good counterweight to a theory which propones that the transition period is only influenced by elite groups originating from the preceding regime.

Iakovlev has also uncovered a strong linear dependency between the share of population involved in trade unions and the subsequent increase in the level of democracy. On the other hand, the democratization effect created by the unions may have structural and social roots extending beyond the negotiations process.

Besides, the research says that trade unions as an engine of democratization never operate alone – they work together with other opposition organizations.

In some countries, e.g. Peru, Madagascar, and Benin, the transition period was successful specifically because of trade unions or the Catholic Church.

From this perspective, the situation in Belarus is both concerning and promising. The current Trade Union Federation cannot be seen as a factor capable of counterbalancing political players due to its complete lack of independence. Strictly speaking, the FPB is not even a pro-Government union, it is an imitation of a union.

Independent unions, as has been mentioned before, are banned. That said, they still retain their potential. The question is whether this potential will be realized.

Again, time is of essence. Today, any independent labour movement in Belarus that operates openly is totally out of the question: those who attempt to assume the role of an alternative union will be instantly repressed.

Yet, if the restoration of independent unions’ activity begins only after the change of power, their influence over the transition period will be extremely limited.

This situation constitutes a major challenge for labour movement leaders and activists. And the extent of their effectiveness in overcoming this challenge will largely determine the form and the destination of the power transition in Belarus.

Victoria Leontyeva

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